Obama's Confidence Game

Our economy is saved! The market is up 300 points! Let the milk and honey flow and private jets once again course the heavens!

Oh, wait a minute. I lost my head there for a moment. We're still in the neighborhood of 6800 for the Dow which means now my investments are down only 40% rather than 42% from last week. A little premature to be popping open the bubbly. Tomorrow the whole fragile victory could disintegrate like spun sugar.

Such is the new reality. One foot in front of another, small victories celebrated cautiously. Followed by the inevitability of some bank toppling or a genius pundit tossing out the "D" word. Can't we just wallow in the recession for a while? Is it necessary to force us into a deeper ditch?

But I'm not ready to give up. Are you with me people? What do we need? Give me a C! Give me an O! Give me a...oh just spell it out all ready--CONFIDENCE! And who's our head cheerleader? BARACK OBAMA HE'S OUR MAN! IF HE CAN'T DO IT...then we're screwed.

Because really, who else is there? The American people are like the frightened townsfolk in “High Noon”. They’re huddled behind saloon doors and post office counters waiting for Gary Cooper to stride out and mow down the bad guys. They’re not looking for Elmer Fudd or Don Knotts. And they don’t want to see Gary Cooper pulling a bag of marbles out of his holster. They want the sheriff to haul out the AK-47 and git ‘er done!

Right now, I think the American people have more confidence in the aim of Simon Cowell than of anyone in Washington.

But why is that? Because apparently at the moment, there is no one attached to the White House that can call the plays and make the pitch like Obama. I mean it’s not even close! And they have tried to run others up the flagpole (think Tim Geithner doing his best deer-in-the-headlights impression during that Congressional hearing) with pretty horrendous results. For better or worse, for the moment, Obama has to play all the positions on the field. But he’s about to throw himself out if he doesn’t watch it.

Yes, his approval numbers are still high. But they should be because of the promises he made last fall. Obama campaigned as a blast of "The Master Cleanser" for the sludge-caked bowels of Washington. The public was tired of back-room deals, broken promises, presidential obfuscation. We needed someone to ride in on the white horse and throw the bums out, promising "Change We Can Believe In!"

Other than what I consider to be negative change—i.e. the trending toward socialism--I’m not sure I see a lot of positive changes, or even the momentum for change. And the things I remember Obama campaigning on that would inspire my confidence in his words--transparency, bipartisanship, an end to government waste and “business as usual”—don’t seem to be panning out either.

Take transparency. I swear I remember our President promising not to hire lobbyists to work in his administration. Yet, there are waivers to his anti-lobbyist requirements being granted behind the scenes for just that purpose. And bipartisanship seems deader than Chris Brown’s endorsement prospects. It was clear from the budget and stimulus bill process that Republicans got the Heisman stiff-arm pretty much the whole way. Let’s face it—a White House tea and cookies reception or Super Bowl party invite do not constitute “Mission Accomplished” for productive bipartisan collaboration.

Here’s the one that really gets me steamed—President Obama’s vigorous and persuasive admonitions that there would be an end to pork barrel spending and government waste. And yet, the 2009 Omnibus Spending Bill sailed through Congress, dragging along 8500 earmarks totaling over $7B in spending on behalf of both parties! It is now sitting on his desk, waiting for signature.

I don’t care what excuses Capitol Hill throws out there to deflect attention away from the President on this one. Do you mean to tell me that Obama could not take a stand and send that bill back for some trimming? At least make a show of living up to his campaign promises? Of course he could! So why won’t he? Politics as usual, knowing that one hand washes the other. I do this for you this time, and you owe me a solid next time.

So my confidence in his abilities to be any different than any other politician is sinking fast. And on top of that, I’m worried about his ability to focus on and prioritize his “To Do” list. Is there any doubt about what needs to happen right now? Put the basketball down and listen to me please. Banks and financial markets need to be stabilized, not through wholesale takeovers, but through temporary government intervention that allows for relief from toxic assets so money can flow again. Because if I can get a loan to buy a house, then I go shopping for furniture to put in it. And that furniture purchase will allow the furniture retailer to keep the doors open. And that will funnel new orders to the furniture manufacturer who can keep his workers employed who will then go out and buy new TVs and DVD players so they can watch old movies like “High Noon” in “High Def”.

But Obama is spreading himself too thin. Like the Health Care Summit—was that necessary at this moment? Other than a lipstick-covered rear end, did Obama reveal any quantifiable result from this? And his pronouncements on Education and Stem Cell funding—all worthy causes, but our kids are still going to school, research is soldiering on and even health care is still available. Each needs attention, but they are not in danger of becoming extinct. Like my 401k.

I know how it is to want to be all things to all people. I have those instincts myself. But if you take on too much and don’t live up to your commitments, people lose faith. And faith (or the lack of it) seems to be trumping facts in the markets these days.

I was watching comedian Jimmy Fallon this morning on TV talking about trying to build an audience and confidence in his abilities as he starts his new late night talk show. He was giving himself 3 months to “figure out” his style, what worked and what did not. I think that’s fair. And I think he’ll succeed. He’s got good people around him, a great house band and a well-established format to work with. No matter what, though, the host has to be able to carry the show.

Like Jimmy Fallon, Obama’s got the established format to step into, but I’m not so sure about the people around him. And I don’t think he can afford the luxury of 3 months to figure out his style. Now if the President would just hire a (White) house band, I would be very confident in his hipness, but he’s still got to be able to live up to his hype and carry the show.